ABSTRACT

In the United States, over 90% of direct carbon emissions from the residential sector come from fossil fuel-fired space and water heating. A critical strategy to decarbonize this sector is adoption of high-efficiency electric heat pumps. However, the market share for heat pumps for both technologies is less than 10% in most states and will need to scale exponentially over the next decade to meet greenhouse gas reduction targets.

TECH Clean California, a multi-year market transformation initiative, focuses on accelerating adoption of heat pump technology for space and water heating by driving down costs, finding new value streams, and scaling successful approaches through market and policy changes. The initiative includes three simultaneous efforts:

• Motivating the supply chain through midstream incentives, workforce training, and stimulating consumer demand
• Demonstrating scalable solutions to key market barriers through pilot projects
• Using sales and meter data from TECH installations to create a public database that can inform an equitable, transformative long-term policy framework for building decarbonization

This paper discusses the theory of change for TECH Clean California and how this initial strategic investment is intended to put the state on a path to achieving its aggressive decarbonization goals. It also reviews what we’ve learned in the first year of implementation and provides recommendations for states considering broad heat pump deployment.

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